The threat of Big Dog

[clyde]

I know very little about programming, but this sounds grand. I imagine that when my toaster kills me, it will be because of the Wolfram language.

http://blog.wolfram.com/2013/11/13/something-very-big-is-coming-our-most-important-technology-project-yet/

[Forbin]

Imagine living near that warehouse.

[Thrik]

Jesus Christ. What if they're actually larger versions of the Nano Quadrotors? They could pick grown men up and rip them apart! This could be the beginning of the end.

 

[Hermie]

DELIVERY FOR MR GRANT

 

 

PLEASE SIGN FOR THIS PACKAGE USING THE FINGERPRINT SCANNER

 

 

FINGERPRINT NOT RECOGNIZED, RETURNING TO SENDER

 

 

YOUR FINGER WILL BE KEPT AS EVIDENCE. FOR RETURN, PLEASE FILL OUT THIS FORM AND SEND TO OUR CUSTOMER SERVICE

[Thrik]

[Forbin]

After talking with people at work about the amazon prime air, we've decided that drone-hunting will become a new form of piracy.  With those orange boxes they should be easy to spot in the air.  Shoot them down, and you get a nice surprise in the package.  Also, considering how expensive it'll be as a shipping method, the contents would likely be fairly valuable.

[TychoCelchuuu]

Why would it be an expensive shipping method? Sticking something on a drone and sending it off through the sky where there's no traffic is probably cheaper than sticking something on a truck that has to run on gasoline and gets bogged down in traffic.

[tegan]

Also, they almost certainly have some kind of security webcam on them for incidents where they're damaged and need to be retrieved.

[Thrik]

Or just a gun.

[Nachimir]

It's purely a coincidence Amazon announced drones on on the biggest online shopping day of the year, following a bunch of negative stories in the preceding week. Uh huh. Definitely not shit PR based around an idea that doesn't make much sense.

[Forbin]

Why would it be an expensive shipping method? Sticking something on a drone and sending it off through the sky where there's no traffic is probably cheaper than sticking something on a truck that has to run on gasoline and gets bogged down in traffic.

shipping in bulk on trucks must be more efficient than individual shipping drones for Amazon. But I saying it'll likely be an expensive shipping method for the consumer, especially at the start. It's also called Prime, so that seems like an indicator it'll be premium shipping.

In the long term I think you're right, the cost of parts and fuel may be lower for these things.

[Nachimir]

Where does the yellow box go? Does it get thrown away? Does the drone come back for it later? How do the drones operate in dense urban areas? How would they deliver to a tower block? Will street view expand to highlight overhead cables? What happens in bad weather? How does the drone cope during interactions with pets and wild animals? How do they defend against air rifles or illegal eighty buck signal jammers? Is the calm atmosphere and relaxed pace of fulfilment centre workers shown in that video a subtle attempt to manipulate our perception in the face of what we all know about those jobs? What stops someone netting the drone and breaking it for parts? Will we all have tiny helipads attached to our homes? Why is buying a tiny spanner for his skateboard such a priority for the man? How will Amazon acquire access to enough property to run the required number of fulfilment centres with drone heliports when the range and speed of multicopters are so catastrophically limited? Will there be a fulfilment centre in every neighbourhood? How will Amazon and their affiliates maintain the required stock levels in so many places to enable thirty minute deliveries? How does this differ from a mailman carelessly throwing a package over your fence? Can drones take signatures?

 

Parts for multicopters are already pretty cheap. They don't work on fuel though, they work on LiPO batteries, and while everyone is hoping nanotechnology will soon result in massive, scalable leaps and bounds in power stored relative to mass, batteries are a technology that's stalled far short of what we'd like to do with it. 30-minute deliveries could be done right now, in most weather and environments, almost certainly cheaper than this, by cycle or motorbike couriers. Amazon Prime Air is the worst kind of design fiction guff, shat out at the exact moment they needed some PR. I'm surprised it didn't have twee piano music over it.

[TychoCelchuuu]

Where does the yellow box go? Does it get thrown away? Does the drone come back for it later?

Maybe you mail it back to Amazon.com via a prepaid label, maybe the drone hangs out and you give it the box, maybe it's a cheap box and you keep it.

How do the drones operate in dense urban areas?

Presumably just fine?

How would they deliver to a tower block?

Maybe there would be a designated pickup zone.

Will street view expand to highlight overhead cables?

We have cars that drive themselves, probably the drone can handle cables.

What happens in bad weather?

They don't offer drone delivery.

How does the drone cope during interactions with pets and wild animals?

How do delivery people?

How do they defend against air rifles or illegal eighty buck signal jammers?

How do delivery people?

Is the calm atmosphere and relaxed pace of fulfilment centre workers shown in that video a subtle attempt to manipulate our perception in the face of what we all know about those jobs?

Yes.

What stops someone netting the drone and breaking it for parts?

You're right, Amazon.com shouldn't build something that people can steal, that's the fatal flaw in their plan. Are you aware that people can steal all sorts of things which are nevertheless still used by businesses to earn a profit?

Will we all have tiny helipads attached to our homes?

Nobody seemed to think it was weird that we all suddenly had satellite dishes attached to our homes. When cars came out suddenly everyone had garages. When the fireplace was invented I bet a lot of people were like "oh, what, so suddenly we're all supposed to build chimneys? Is that how it works? Every house is going to have a little tower coming out with a hole for smoke? Really? You really think that will happen?" And then it happened because it turns out building a small addition to your house isn't really a big deal.

Why is buying a tiny spanner for his skateboard such a priority for the man?

He's going to use it for some weird occult sex act. He can't get off without it.

How will Amazon acquire access to enough property to run the required number of fulfilment centres with drone heliports when the range and speed of multicopters are so catastrophically limited?

Dirty politics.

Will there be a fulfilment centre in every neighbourhood?

No.

How will Amazon and their affiliates maintain the required stock levels in so many places to enable thirty minute deliveries?

The same way they do it right now. 30 minute shipping won't be on every item in every place. They'll use their magic algorithms to figure out which items to keep in stock at which center and offer 30 minute shipping on those items.

How does this differ from a mailman carelessly throwing a package over your fence?

You don't have to wait for the mail carrier to do the daily run.

Can drones take signatures?

Maybe.

[James]

How do they defend against air rifles or illegal eighty buck signal jammers?

How do delivery people?

What stops someone netting the drone and breaking it for parts?

You're right, Amazon.com shouldn't build something that people can steal, that's the fatal flaw in their plan. Are you aware that people can steal all sorts of things which are nevertheless still used by businesses to earn a profit?

 

While you're right that these don't fundamentally undermine the idea, it does seem relevant that these are unmanned and relatively small devices. Stealing from a person in a van is a much more significant act in a number of respects: the psychological aversion to taking from a present person is much greater, particularly if force is involved; the law is likely to look more harshly on one crime than the other (robbery versus theft); the resources required to halt the vehicle would presumably be much less substantial in the case of the drone; and I imagine it would be less conspicuous to do so.

I really can't make a judgement as to how much of a problem all these things will be. Perhaps malicious attempts will be so rare as not to be off-putting to Amazon. Perhaps the countermeasures will be effective enough to take care of most of it. Will Amazon drones be zipping all over the place in 2015? I wouldn't rule it out, but I'm certainly somewhat skeptical.

[Thrik]

I don't think these drone things are likely to be as expensive to build as one might imagine, especially if mass-produced. Look at how quickly they can roll cars out when the demand is there. I'd imagine that Amazon would just write off a certain percentage of them in their budgets the same way they do for returns, lost packages, etc.

 

The weird thing is that the technology is actually all there now, so this kind of idea isn't blowing the mind the way I feel it should. It seems inevitable, really. I'm sure there'll be all sorts of logistical issues, but they'll be overcome. Even if these things are only offered to businesses with contracts, that's still going to be really useful if they want to be able to get things on demand the same day without having couriers do it. And if consumers can benefit from this too as the dream implies, awesome.

 

That point about them being able to take signatures terrifies me, though. It'd probably have one of those digital pen tablets on its top like most delivery drivers tend to use nowadays. But what if its razor-sharp blades start spinning as you're signing it? What if it does it on purpose...?!

[SecretAsianMan]

Can I get a delivery on the 30th floor of a building without going down to the front door?

[miffy495]

Am I the only one who saw this news and immediately thought of presents on balloons in Animal Crossing?

[TychoCelchuuu]

While you're right that these don't fundamentally undermine the idea, it does seem relevant that these are unmanned and relatively small devices. Stealing from a person in a van is a much more significant act in a number of respects: the psychological aversion to taking from a present person is much greater, particularly if force is involved; the law is likely to look more harshly on one crime than the other (robbery versus theft); the resources required to halt the vehicle would presumably be much less substantial in the case of the drone; and I imagine it would be less conspicuous to do so.

I really can't make a judgement as to how much of a problem all these things will be. Perhaps malicious attempts will be so rare as not to be off-putting to Amazon. Perhaps the countermeasures will be effective enough to take care of most of it. Will Amazon drones be zipping all over the place in 2015? I wouldn't rule it out, but I'm certainly somewhat skeptical.

We already use unmanned devices to deliver some products or services to people: vending machines, ATMs, the automated bar + ticket machines that block entrance and exit from parking garages, automated checkout machines at grocery stores, and so on. If people want to smash a machine and grab some stuff they have plenty of options already.

[Gormongous]

We already use unmanned devices to deliver some products or services to people: vending machines, ATMs, the automated bar + ticket machines that block entrance and exit from parking garages, automated checkout machines at grocery stores, and so on. If people want to smash a machine and grab some stuff they have plenty of options already.

 

I think the difference between those (extremely specialized) devices and Amazon's (completely generalized) devices accounts for much of the Overton window business going on here.

[James]

We already use unmanned devices to deliver some products or services to people: vending machines, ATMs, the automated bar + ticket machines that block entrance and exit from parking garages, automated checkout machines at grocery stores, and so on. If people want to smash a machine and grab some stuff they have plenty of options already.

Perhaps it's irrational, but those devices being static and more physically substantial distinguishes them in my mind. They can be put in relatively secure locations, and can't easily be carried off (although it's not impossible by any means), and are harder to break into, particularly in the case of ATMs. On first glance drones seem like a much easier target.

How high would these things be flying? Perhaps they'd be too high to be easily tampered with.

[TychoCelchuuu]

I think the difference between those (extremely specialized) devices and Amazon's (completely generalized) devices accounts for much of the Overton window business going on here.

Vending machines aren't really "extremely specialized," I think - Japan has got them selling panties and everything else, right? And it's not like Amazon's thing is completely generalized. It can only fit relatively small (and light?) things. Like a vending machine...

[SecretAsianMan]

Perhaps it's irrational, but those devices being static and more physically substantial distinguishes them in my mind. They can be put in relatively secure locations, and can't easily be carried off (although it's not impossible by any means), and are harder to break into, particularly in the case of ATMs. On first glance drones seem like a much easier target.

How high would these things be flying? Perhaps they'd be too high to be easily tampered with.

 

Well they eventually have to land (or at least hover close to the ground) in order to drop off their package otherwise you risk damaging the product.  I'm now imagining someone making a venus fly trap like device to catch these things when they drop off packages.

[Thrik]

I think you guys are underestimating the capability of these things. If you try and fuck with them they will kill you.

 

[feelthedarkness]

obviously the yellow crates will be lined with a small quantity of explosive, should anything catastrophic happen to the drone, they will incinerate the goods, as a pyrrhic victory is still a victory. 

[TychoCelchuuu]

Each drone will be accompanied by three decoy drones, like how a VIP convoy has decoy cars that don't have the important person in them. Anyone who downs and retrieves a decoy drone will find that the package contains a bomb that emits knockout gas and a GPS tracker that allows Amazon's other fleet of drones, the killdrones, to zero in on the thief's location. Killdrones have a 79% efficacy rate that increases to 88% in instances where the knockout gas dispersal is not dissipated by weather effects. Killdrones have a 91% success rate with respect to eliminating the correct target, and the success rate increases to 97% if instances where killdrones eliminate the intended target are counted as successes even when unintended fatalities are also generated.