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Ha ha, I'm going to steal that off you for a tweet. I normally try not to retweet, or post vids/images too much, but I think events demand it.

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https://twitter.com/IHarrisonSP/status/746803408657612800

 

A poll from the Sunday Post puts support for Scottish independence at 59%. If you exclude people who answered Don't Know, the result is 65/35 in favour of independence.

 

There are some big caveats to this: This is only one poll, directly after the EU referendum result when people are still angry. But if these results hold up in future polls, this is a HUGE swing. Before the first independence referendum, polling never went higher than 51%.

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Super fascinating interpretation of wtf is going on right now from one of the comments here from user named Teebs, I'll quote the comment

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935

 

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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I pray Teebs is right about that, but as some of the response comments to them suggest, the EU may not allow the UK that possibility. That said, I also think it's not in the EU's best interests to kick Britain out the door because of the precedent it sets for other countries that have occasionally grumbled about a referendum for themselves. If this week has taught us anything, though, it's that just because it may not be the best idea doesn't mean it won't happen.

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I don't disagree, but where this breaks down is when the people to whom political decisions have been outsourced make the decision that a referendum is be a good idea.

To be fair, it's not a decision they make often. Only three referenda have ever been held that cover the whole UK. But that one of them should have been held as a cynical ploy by a PM desperate to cling on to power despite deep divisions in his party and supporters – a ploy that has now forced him to relinquish that power and potentially thrown his party into even greater turmoil – seems achingly unjust. David Cameron wanted so badly to win re-election that he gambled the whole country's future for generations to come on it, and lost. And to compound the bitter irony, the left's showing at the last election was so poor that he probably needn't have even bothered.

I really hope we find a way for this to work out OK. That the pound bounces back and we make trade agreements and we allow for similar movement of people and labour and we don't descend into racist mayhem and so on. But I don't know if that's even remotely likely, and even if it is, the ugliness is already starting to show. Perhaps it's being overrepresented because everyone is on the lookout for signs of trouble, or perhaps the emboldening of racism is only a short-term effect that will subside once things start to seem normal again, but I don't know.

It's a thought you see all over the place, but it's an irresistible one: you can totally imagine this appearing twenty years from now as a key contributing factor in the "prelude" paragraph in a Wikipedia article on something really dreadful. Melodramatic, sure, but it fits the bill.

I guess it's hard to pin down why people voted leave. A friend told me he did so because he believes the UK economy is incompatible with the EU. Hopefully it's a lot of that, or people drawn in by all the nonsense about EU regulations and unaccountability and vague notions of sovereignty. I think the latter swayed my dad. My mum, on the other hand, is Swedish, and has found this result frightening and upsetting.

What a mess.

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it's not in the EU's best interests to kick Britain out the door because of the precedent it sets for other countries

 

It's not ideal, but consider the precedent they would set by renegotiating the UK's membership. Before the vote, Leave politicians toyed with the idea of using the referendum for leverage to get a better deal, that's the whole reason Cameron was so adamant about this vote being a final decision and not a poker chip to use later on. His replacement might still try to find a way to stay in the EU and save face by bargaining for extra benefits. I think that's what the EU is really worried about.

 

The union can arguably withstand the loss of one country, but if every member begins pressuring it for preferential treatment its going to tear itself apart real quick. Quite obviously, it's just not possibly for every country to be paid out more than it pays in, even if the peace, stability and freedom the union brings makes this more than worth it. As callous as it sounds, I think the EU currently sees it as their best move to let Britain slide into a recession to demonstrate to the rest of its members why they are actually better off inside.

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Yeah, that's the main reason I'm suspicious of claims that we might not even leave. If we were to renege on this, we'd have to do so with our tail between our legs. The EU can't show any more favouritism, for its own sake. We'd have nothing to bargain with whatsoever; the situation the Leave politicians find themselves in may be dreadful, but returning to the EU in a worse position than at the moment of the referendum seems like political suicide. I think it'd be better for the country if they did that, but it seems astronomically unlikely.

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It feels like the situation could be resolved relatively painlessly, if politicians could find it in them to show backbone. Of course, given a choice between admitting their deceit and sticking to their guns, I fear they may decide to drive the UK off a cliff, just so they can stay in charge of that "Let's fund the NHS!" bus while it falls.

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If they were to ignore the referendum, do you think that would lead to a surge in support for UKIP or other fringe parties? Much has been said of Leave voters' remorse, but that's presumably a very visible minority; a lot of people would feel very betrayed if we backtracked. Would that be significant enough to be something to be concerned about?

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If they were to ignore the referendum, do you think that would lead to a surge in support for UKIP or other fringe parties? Much has been said of Leave voters' remorse, but that's presumably a very visible minority; a lot of people would feel very betrayed if we backtracked. Would that be significant enough to be something to be concerned about?

 

That's the problem with just ignoring the public. You turn a lot of people radical, and judging from the increase in racist incidents since the vote, the radical is ready to come out in the most disgusting way possible. 

 

I do really wish there was some sort of "minimum majority" for referendums. 51% is not a majority. It's the same result you'd get from flipping a coin 64 million times. 

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They're the members of the opposition that "shadow" the government cabinet ministers. i.e. the government (the largest party) has a Minister for Education, so the opposition (the second-largest party) has a Shadow Minister for Education.

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They're the members of the opposition that "shadow" the government cabinet ministers. i.e. the government (the largest party) has a Minister for Education, so the opposition (the second-largest party) has a Shadow Minister for Education.

Its a good way for a party out of power to have spokesperson on specific issues. So when the government bring out a policy the Shadow Minister can discuss what the opposition would do instead.

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The name "Shadow Cabinet" is certainly one of the best parts of the Westminster system. 

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It's such a shame people don't know the UK parliamentary system as well as the American one, because it's bonkers in a good way (and also bad ways). I would love to have a shadow cabinet.

 

Some David Tennant goodness through the link.

 

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What do American's call their shadow ministers? 

 

We have the House and Senate majority and minority leaders, but not really any other official shadow positions. 

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Alright people, it's time for... real life socializing

 

If you are around/in Birmingham and would like to join some other Thumbs for some drinks, we have a plan!

 

On the: 23/07 (a Saturday!) - probably in the evening? 

At: Probably some pub? (I have suggestions!)

 

We have 3 (three!) confirmed* presences already, but the more the merrier!

 

*by confirming your presence you agree to Terms and Conditions

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