Frenetic Pony

RIP Nintendo, 1889-2016

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Nintendo to develop and release new consoles for emerging markets in 2015

 

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Wat? Wait you mean... the same market that already bought dirt cheap PS2's, and will be buying dirt cheap PS3's... consoles with huge game libraries and severely low costs and proven designs...

 

Err.... Uhhh. Welp Nintendo's dead. I mean, maybe they could bring back to life, and by "bring it back to life" I mean "fire Saturo Iwata and bring in someone sane." But... wat? I mean... this is literally saying "Let's build a luxury product specifically and only for people that don't have money and thus can't afford luxury products."

 

...

 

Wow

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Nintendo's done stuff like this before, you know. Unique hardware targeted at emerging markets.

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Nintendo's done stuff like this before, you know. Unique hardware targeted at emerging markets.

 

It implies an entire console... I mean if it's just a 2DS kinda thing I get it. But if it's actually what it implies.

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Da fuq

 

Look, Nintendo's problem is that they constantly use underpowered equipment to cut costs, and because the hardware's less exciting and the tools are poor quality, it's not desirable for developers. Their engineering culture is actually perfectly aligned for this kind of thing.

 

As for making a 'luxury product', the Mega Drive continued selling in Brazil for like 20 years, because it was cheap enough to be affordable. $20 buys you more than a Playstation used to have these days. What Nintendo need to do is to suck it up and sell their games for a price developing nations can afford. Valve worked out there's a massive market for games in Russia, so long as you keep the massive wealth inequality in mind when you price, and China, India, Brazil and the African continent are in the same boat; looks like Nintendo's come to the same conclusion, which is encouraging.

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What Nintendo need to do is to suck it up and sell their games for a price developing nations can afford. Valve worked out there's a massive market for games in Russia, so long as you keep the massive wealth inequality in mind when you price, and China, India, Brazil and the African continent are in the same boat; looks like Nintendo's come to the same conclusion, which is encouraging.

Yeah this seems like a good thing. Apparently it's already been happened with the iQue.

 

How does this mean Nintendo is dead or dying? I don't even understand what the alarmist nature of this thread is. Even if so 2016 is not the death of Nintendo even if you were to go with something as simple as their cash reserves as the main reason why.

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Welcome to the long line of people who have over the last twenty years declared Nintendo dead, based on disbelief. The facts of the matter are that Nintendo, despite tremendous Luigi-related losses, still have deep coffers and have lots of experience clawing back from an impossible situation. They've done it before, they'll do it again. Every person who declared Nintendo dead, and there have been buckets and buckets, did it for the same reasons as above and have been 100% wrong.

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Yeah this seems like a good thing. Apparently it's already been happened with the iQue.

 

How does this mean Nintendo is dead or dying? I don't even understand what the alarmist nature of this thread is. Even if so 2016 is not the death of Nintendo even if you were to go with something as simple as their cash reserves as the main reason why.

 

Because... it's stupid. This is not the 80's or 90's anymore, Brazil is not a third world country. "The developing world" refers to the highest growth GPD, but still dirt poor countries that are in Africa (mostly) and a few other places. Now, getting smartphones into their hands, a practical item by all accounts, is a hugely ambitious goal with a race to get there it's true.

 

But these places have cell service, but they don't have televisions, odd it may seem but true. Building roads and schools is considered a major accomplishment. No building roads is a major accomplishment and building schools is a dream to strive for. And Nintendo wants to sell them a game console? The world's changed, if you even want a gaming device then a smartphone is going to have far more free games than any console ever will. And it has cell service, did I mention many of these places have cell service as their only internet connection? Meaning a dedicated console without a built in cellular connection isn't going to work well.

 

And then there's the data rates, now getting Angry Birds isn't going to be so bad. But data rates in these places make the US seem like a haven for good internet. So unless your dedicated console is also going to only play tiny downloadable games (and what's the point of that?) then I don't see it working. As for discs, it's not like there's gamestops downtown to go to.

 

Then there's the competition, by next year an Xbox 360 will be $150, maybe $120 and it will just keep going down from there. That's a console with a proven design, a huge game library, a name for itself, continued support, what's not to like?

 

Then there's the business model, consoles are usually a razors and razor blades model. Sell the console at a loss or at cost, make up for it by taking a percentage. A console cheaper than a 360 isn't going to have $60 games sell in huge numbers. It isn't going to have $10 games sell in huge numbers. So who's going to develop for it? The answer would be what, current mobile developers. Back to having a smartphone compete directly with your game console.

 

So that's the thing I can see. Who's the target audience for this? Someone who: A. already has a smartphone, which can game and access the internet and etc. B. has enough money for a dedicated games console. C. has a television to hook it up too already. D. Can't afford a $120 for a 360. E. Has access to a way to reliably get games (actually solid internet service? a gamestop? reliable service from Alibaba and Amazon?). I'm not sure how many people that meet all those requirements exist, but I'd easily bet its not a lot.

 

I'd hate to say I have a good track record on predicting Nintendo's bad moves, and that no one likes to believe me any other time I tell them Nintendo is being monumentally stupid. But I did call the necessity for a 3DS price drop two months before it happened, and predicted the Wii-U's failure before it even came out http://gamasutra.com/blogs/JohnathonSwift/20120921/178118/The_End_of_Nintendo.php

 

And now they're targeting... a what? A sub $100 console, anything more and its in the same exact price range as a 360. That also can demonstrate value in gaming more than a smartphone, when the only people that would develop for that price range and hardware spec are ports of mobile games that are already available on Android. And then we assume that these "developing world" people don't already have an Android phone to play those games on... what exactly am I missing other than a bunch of "don't discount Nintendo!"? I'd like to know, because if I'd discounted Nintendo back 18 months ago when I predicted the failure of the Wii U, I'd have a lot more money now than anyone that kept their stock.

 

I mean, they're targeting China? It's called a god damned PC, the home of free to play and already with maaaaaaaaasive install base there, and with a massive native games library to boot. I know it's hard to think of Nintendo going away. They've been around forever right? But that doesn't mean they're doing well business wise. Until they get rid of Saturo Iwata and replace him with someone sane, I'm guessing Nintendo will slide into oblivion.

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I'll be surprised if Nintendo die before Microsoft ( well xbox) and Sony.

It's also in my nature to support to underdog. If Nintendo release something cool then I and probably shit loads of other Nintendo fans will buy it. Just a shame they released something bad this time around. They are a company run by old men which really needs to change, but I can understand why they don't. It's worked for them constantly. It'll probably work again.

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My expectation that this will be some handheld device — eliminating the issue of no TVs while not succumbing to the world of mobile phones — that allows people to play the games that may or may not be available on other Nintendo platforms. For example, the Wii U would be a great candidate for such a market if it were much cheaper because it'd allow both those with and without a TV to enjoy it just the same.

 

What I can't see happening is Nintendo not continuing to develop home consoles for developed markets along with its traditional first-party games, so I see no reason to say that Nintendo is dead or even different (from our perspective). They easily have the capacity to handle both markets if they really want to, and it could pay off for them big time.

 

Plus, just because this machine is designed for emerging markets doesn't mean it has to be exclusive to them. Conceivably, Nintendo could work towards having two lines of consoles: one that's cheaper and more casual, and one that's 'serious' and can compete on specs alone (unlike the Wii and Wii U). Perhaps trying to appeal to all markets with one device is part of Nintendo's current predicament.


Of course, I'm not sure what would distinguish this machine from an old DS or Wii, which should already be pretty cheap there. Maybe a big part of it is games, as presumably taste is different in India or North Korea.

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Because... it's stupid.

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Then there's the business model, consoles are usually a razors and razor blades model. Sell the console at a loss or at cost, make up for it by taking a percentage.

 

They have enough cash to absorb a loss somewhere in the neighbourhood of 10+ times as bad as the past year has been for them. It's not enough to pronounce them dead just because they make a bonehead move, if anything the proposed bonehead move is going to be less costly for them than the WiiU has been.

 

And nintendo have always been contrary with regard to the razor/razorblade model. I wouldn't necessarily vouch for their other devices, but they made money on every Wii sold purely on the hardware alone.

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Anyway, that's an awful lot of assumptions for someone who doesn't actually live in a developing country.

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But I did call the necessity for a 3DS price drop two months before it happened, and predicted the Wii-U's failure before it even came out

Oh, wow, that's really impressive, no one else did that, that's so amazing!

 

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Oh, wow, that's really impressive, no one else did that, that's so amazing!

 

...

 

It reminds me of the joke of the economist who predicted eight of the last three recessions.

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I imagine it's a reaction to this: 

 

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wii-u-sales-slow-to-a-crawl-as-nintendo-posts-457-million-loss/1100-6419475/

 

Polygon even did an editorial last week on Nintendo sinking or something. They have some amazing properties, they make great games, but I can't imagine them keeping up in the console race because they simply seem to have a blind spot when it comes to what people want out of a console. I'm all for innovation and I think the WiiU tablet thing was a great idea, but their lack of understanding of online and social gaming is hurting them. Also the fact they are on some weird offset cycle to the big three.

 

Nintendo will still be around, I just don't know why they would try to make a console Stick with handheld, license your IP, and make great games.

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their lack of understanding of online and social gaming is hurting them

I think this is legitimately THE reason hardcore gamers just don't care about Nintendo anymore. And clearly the Wii's popularity was not a permanent thing, as all those people who jumped aboard for the fad, have bailed. I think it's safe to call it a fad now, as much as I personally liked a lot of Wii stuff, INCLUDING the controller.

 

Anyway... Yeah. Nintendo will never recapture the hardcore audience until they figure out what it is people like about online and social gaming. Or hire someone who already understands it. Arguably the latter is easier, but Nintendo's so fucking insular that I doubt it'll happen for a long while. That said, do they really care? That's the important question. Maybe they're just going to Give Up on what used to be their core audience. Maybe at this point they see it as a lost cause. I don't know.

 

Despite everything I JUST TYPED HERE, I really think it's insane to say Nintendo is going to die within the next two years.

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I dunno about fad, I mean as a brand, yes? But movement controllers/and kinect still live on and still are sort of relevant. Even looking at the future with VR and what the playstation move was doing or what the kinect could do in those situations, it seems like there is a bit of legacy that could live on and do some really interesting things.

 

Even if the Wii U didn't catch on, the idea of having a supplementary touch screen is being supported by Sony and MS, it's just a shame nothing is standardized, or it would be supported more and have some really interesting uses.

 

That is to say, none of these examples makes Nintendo money, I'm just making a point that they weren't terrible ideas.

 

And yeah, Im not sure Nintendo has cared about the "hardcore" audience in awhile, but maybe the farther away they get away from that it would allow them to take chances like license an IP out for a game to be made in that market because it would be so far from their base it wouldn't matter to them? If that makes any sense? I dunno. I just think Nintendo could easily have their cake and eat it to, but who the fuck knows what's going on with their leadership.

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Does the audience that originally jumped on for Wii controller en masse now collectively own a PS4/Xbone with their respective motion controls? I don't think that's the case. Maybe I'm wrong, but... And it's pretty obvious the quote-unquote hardcore gamers don't particularly care about that junk.

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We're discussing two points on the same subject.

 

1. The mass market that bought into the wii that made Nintendo money

 

2. The legacy the wiimote left on the rest of the industry that will continue with or without the mass market.

 

So yes, it was a fad with Grandpa and Grandpa that made them flush with cash, no, I don't think it was just a fad on the impact to the gaming community that will continue without grandpa and grandpa.

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Right. So we don't disagree.

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I definitely don't think Nintendo is going to "die" any time soon but I'm not necessarily convinced that they're going to bounce back again just because they've done it before. Maybe they will and maybe they won't but they've clearly put themselves in a tough spot with their console strategy and I think it is cause for concern at this point especially given how weak its sales numbers are compared to other current gen consoles that have only been out for 6 months. So, while prophesying the "death" of Nintendo is a bit extreme, I don't think it makes for a good argument to claim that Nintendo will be fine just because they have climbed out of the hole in the past.

 

Overall though, I think I generally feel optimistic about Nintendo's future. They do a lot of dumb shit and dream up some truly ridiculous accessories but by doing this, a few awesome things usually catch on and keep them going.

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It reminds me of the joke of the economist who predicted eight of the last three recessions.

 

I'm no economist, but I'm pretty sure that expecting economics to predict the exact timing of recessions/expansions is a severe misunderstanding of the discipline.

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The joke is not that they can't predict them with accuracy, but that they predict them very often (hence 8 out of 3 - they predicted 8, only 3 occurred).

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Please.... Atari made the worst decisions ever and will it's around, shambling like a walker, but it's still alive, Sega is OK, most of the "Elders" are still around...

 

They survived the Virtua Boy with barely a scratch, Sony back-stabbed them Game of Thrones style when they tried to release a CD-SNES and Sony released the PSX.

 

Frankly, I don't even see why this is a bad idea, China didn't really have any consoles before, as far as I know, so making a special one for them doesn't seem stupid.

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Sega makes pachinko machines and has for a long time. Nobody said that would kill them.

 

I see this as a big gain. I think it could result in Nintendo filtering out its need to do novel stuff (the Wii remote, Wii U's controller screen) and get back to just making classic consoles. It may even allow them to focus on their digital platform, which they are sorely behind on when pitted against their competitors.

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I definitely don't think Nintendo is going to "die" any time soon but I'm not necessarily convinced that they're going to bounce back again just because they've done it before.

Yeah that's how I feel.

 

I guess to me, just because a company is not on top anymore doesn't mean they die. It doesn't seem like any Nintendo fan (and there are a lot of them for sure) is going to give up on the Nintendo staples any time soon. Obviously they are trying to experiment here a bit with emerging markets for the sake of making some profit. I'm sure they'll pull out if profit doesn't get made. How is that going to kill them?

 

Also Majesco has made a ton of bad decisions, but rereleasing a cheapo version of the Game Gear with the built in games wasn't one of them. The hardware was better than the originals but the plastic was way cheaper. Win win for everyone who never wanted a Game Gear first time around plus other countries can now afford them.

Why isn't Pepsi dead?

 

Anyway, there's really not enough info in this news announcement for me to speculate much.

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